Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach
Paul Rougieux and
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In a panel of European countries, we analyse paper products, sawnwood and wood panels consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real GDP and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non-stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products. Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20-year time horizon. Lower demand for solid wood and wood fibre would lead to less tensions with fuel wood- and wood-based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for renewable bio-based products, updated long-term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector's sustainability.
Keywords: FINITE-SAMPLE PROPERTIES; TIME-SERIES; HETEROGENEOUS PANELS; PRICE ELASTICITIES; CROSS-SECTION; INCOME; WOOD; ECONOMETRICS; PAPERBOARD; forest product; sustainability; UNIT-ROOT TESTS; panel; produit à base de bois; europe; produit forestier; cointégration; durabilité (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Published in Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2018, 50 (30), pp.3247-3270. ⟨10.1080/00036846.2017.1420887⟩
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Journal Article: Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach (2018)
Working Paper: Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01826008
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