The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections

Tareq Sadeq and Michel Lubrano
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Tareq Sadeq: Birzeit University, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: In 2002, the Israeli government decided to build a wall inside the occupied West Bank. The wall had a marked effect on the access to land and water resources as well as to the Israeli labour market. It is difficult to include the effect of the wall in an econometric model explaining poverty dynamics as the wall was built in the richer region of the West Bank. So a diff-in-diff strategy is needed. Using a Bayesian approach, we treat our two-period repeated cross-section data set as an incomplete data problem, explaining the income-to-needs ratio as a function of time invariant exogenous variables. This allows us to provide inference results on poverty dynamics. We then build a conditional regression model including a wall variable and state dependence to see how the wall modified the initial results on poverty dynamics. We find that the wall has increased the probability of poverty persistence by 58 percentage points and the probability of poverty entry by 18 percentage points.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; pseudo panels; data augmentation; walls; poverty dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-06
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-01840598
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Econometrics, 2018, 6 (2), ⟨10.3390/econometrics6020029⟩

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Journal Article: The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections (2018)
Working Paper: The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01840598

DOI: 10.3390/econometrics6020029

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