Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025‪

Laurent Piet () and Legrand Saint-Cyr

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Abstract: Using data from both the non-salaried contributing farmers' database (COTNS) of the Mutualité Sociale Agricole (MSA, the French agency for farmers' healthcare and social security), and from the 2010 Agricultural Census, this paper provides a projection of the population of French farms in 2025. The authors present the method used to consolidate the COTNS database at the farm level, as well as the "mover-stayer" model used to estimate entry, exit, and size change transition probabilities. The projection shows that, if the observed trends continue, the number of French farms could drop to 342,000 in 2025, a 30 percent decrease compared to 2010 figures.

Keywords: modèle mobile-stable; MSA; farm; structural change; mover-stayer model; holdings; France; exploitation agricole; changement structurel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Published in Économie rurale, 2018, 365, pp.119-133

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01956096

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