Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment

Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley and Brian Hill ()
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Casey Helgeson: Penn State - Pennsylvania State University [State College, PA] - Penn State System
Richard Bradley: LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science
Brian Hill: GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREGHEC - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.

Date: 2018-07-26
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01966704v1
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Published in Climatic Change, 2018, 149 (3-4), pp.517-525. ⟨10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01966704

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6

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