Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach

Thi Hong Van Hoang (), Amine Lahiani () and David Heller
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Thi Hong Van Hoang: MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - UM - Université de Montpellier
Amine Lahiani: LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper aims to study the role of gold as a hedge against inflation based on local monthly gold prices in China, India, Japan, France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America in periods ranging from 1955 to 2015. We extend the literature by using a novel approach with the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model (Shin et al., 2014). The main advantage of this model relies on its ability to simultaneously capture the short- and long-run asymmetries through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of changes in the independent variable(s). Moreover, we rely on local gold prices instead of those from London converted into local currencies like in most of previous studies. The results show that gold is not a hedge against inflation in the long run in all cases. In the short run, gold is an inflation hedge only in the UK, USA, and India. Furthermore, there is no long-run equilibrium between gold prices and the CPI in China, India and France. This difference may be due to traditional aspects of gold and custom controls for gold trade in these countries. Our robustness check suggests that the data time-frequency does not change the specification of the NARDL model but can change conclusions regarding the role of gold as a hedge against inflation in certain countries.

Keywords: Data frequency effect; GARCH structural break unit root test; Gold; Inflation; Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model (NARDL) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (94)

Published in Economic Modelling, 2016, 54, pp.54-66. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.013⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02012307

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.013

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