Super cycles des prix des matières premières: Actualité du Kondratiev ? Une interrogation légitime

Eric Bosserelle ()
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Eric Bosserelle: REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne

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Abstract: In this article, we are interested in the studies that have been carried out about the super- cycles in commodity prices over the last years. Our causes of interest are twofold. On the one hand, these studies particularly highlight the rising price of staples which has affected the world's economy from the end of the 1990's and which can be associated to the expansive phase of a new great price cycle. On the other hand, and above all, these studies update former ones. At first, the studies carried out by N D Kondratiev in the course of the 1920's, which led to much criticism, but whose price aspect undoubtedly remains the core of the issue raised by long-lasting cycles. Kondratiev had first spotted the presence of great price-cycles by referring to indexes that were essentially composed of staple goods prices. Then, the studies carried out by J Sirol (1942) and W W Rostow (1975) put forward elements of consideration regarding the long –lasting fluctuations of staple goods prices (agricultural goods for Sirol) which remain particularly illuminating in this context.

Keywords: Kondratiev; super cycles des prix; produits de base; filtre passe-bande de Christiano-Fitzgerald; indices des prix (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Published in Économie appliquée : archives de l'Institut de science économique appliquée, 2015, tome LXVIII, 3, pp.5-41. ⟨10.3406/ecoap.2015.3715⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02071834

DOI: 10.3406/ecoap.2015.3715

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