Les guerres et le Kondratiev: faut-il redouter l’échéance de 2020-2030 ?

Éric Bosserelle ()
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Éric Bosserelle: REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne

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Abstract: In this article we are interested in the current position of Kondratiev waves and in the question of wars. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand, since the beginning of the 2000 decade several researchers have formulated the thesis that a new expansive long wave has installed itself. On the other hand, the concentration of wars in historical periods identified as rapid growth phases of Kondratiev waves, leads some of them to fear that the development of this growth phase will at the end lead to the start of a high-intensity conflict around 2020-2030. Although we reject the thesis of the entry into a new phase A and although the hypothesis of the reappearance of a major conflict in the next few decades seems implausible to us, it nevertheless remains that a certain number of menaces linked to the path taken up by the phase of globalization, to the new geopolitical configuration of the world, and to the new forms of contemporary conflicts, must not be underestimated.

Keywords: Kondratiev; guerre; phases A et B; hégémonie; mondialisation; conflits contemporains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Published in Économie appliquée : archives de l'Institut de science économique appliquée, 2009, 4, tome LXII, 62 (4), pp.35-72. ⟨10.3406/ecoap.2009.1922⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02075990

DOI: 10.3406/ecoap.2009.1922

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