Trading European Central Bank rumours on the EUR-USD exchange rate market

Fabrizio Casalin, Hugh Metcalf and Baback Roodbar

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Abstract: This paper investigates whether the release of market-relevant news in the form of rumours on Twitter can explain the excess of market volatility previously attributed to private information, speculation, and noise traders. We define a simple theoretical model to show that the systematic information content of such rumours should result in detectable price effects in macro-markets. We then pinpoint the arrival of 63 rumours of forthcoming ECB actions over a 420-day sample of one-minute spot EUR-USD rates, and show that there is a real-time, intraday increase in market volatility. This largely unexplored information set can potentially account for significant amounts of unexplained volatility in macro-markets and, therefore, identify a possible explanation of one of the most prominent puzzles in price discovery research.

Date: 2018-11-09
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Published in International Review of Financial Analysis, 2018, 61 (C), pp.53-70

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02108174

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