Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking

Gilbert Colletaz, Grégory Levieuge and Alexandra Popescu ()
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Gilbert Colletaz: UO - Université d'Orléans, LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [FRE2014] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Alexandra Popescu: CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, Axe 2 (2017-2021) : "Vulnérabilités et risques" (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS de Poitiers - Maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UFR Sciences économiques [Poitiers] - Université de Poitiers – Faculté de Sciences économiques - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers

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Abstract: As an extension to the literature on the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, this paper studies the existence of a systemic risk-taking channel (SRTC) in the Eurozone, through an original macroeconomic perspective based on causality measures. Because the SRTC is effective after an "incubation period", we make a distinction between short and long-term causality, following the methodology proposed by Dufour and Taamouti (2010). We find that causality from monetary policy to systemic risk, while not significant in the very short term, robustly represents 75 to 100% of the total dependence between the two variables in the long run. Reverse causality is rejected: systemic risk did not influence the policy of the European Central Bank before the global financial crisis. However, central banks must be aware that a too loose monetary policy stance may be conducive to a build-up of systemic risk.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Systemic risk-taking; Long run causality; SRisk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

Published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2018, 86, pp.165-184. ⟨10.1016/j.jedc.2017.11.001⟩

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Journal Article: Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking (2018)
Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Long-Run Systemic Risk-Taking (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02162296

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.11.001

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