A min cut-set-wise truncation procedure for importance measures computation in probabilistic safety assessment

Nicolas Duflot, Christophe Bérenguer (), Laurence Dieulle and Dominique Vasseur
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Nicolas Duflot: LM2S - Laboratoire Modélisation et Sûreté des Systèmes - ICD - Institut Charles Delaunay - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Christophe Bérenguer: LM2S - Laboratoire Modélisation et Sûreté des Systèmes - ICD - Institut Charles Delaunay - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Laurence Dieulle: LM2S - Laboratoire Modélisation et Sûreté des Systèmes - ICD - Institut Charles Delaunay - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Dominique Vasseur: EDF R&D MRI - Management des Risques Industriels - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF

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Abstract: A truncation process aims to determine among the set of minimal cut-sets (MCS) produced by a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model which of them are significant. Several truncation processes have been proposed for the evaluation of the probability of core damage ensuring a fixed accuracy level. However, the evaluation of new risk indicators as importance measures requires to re-examine the truncation process in order to ensure that the produced estimates will be accurate enough. In this paper a new truncation process is developed permitting to estimate from a single set of MCS the importance measure of any basic event with the desired accuracy level. The main contribution of this new method is to propose an MCS-wise truncation criterion involving two thresholds: an absolute threshold in addition to a new relative threshold concerning the potential probability of the MCS of interest. The method has been tested on a complete level 1 PSA model of a 900 MWe NPP developed by "Electricité de France" (EDF) and the results presented in this paper indicate that to reach the same accuracy level the proposed method produces a set of MCS whose size is significantly reduced.

Date: 2009-11
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published in Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, 94 (11), pp.1827-1837. ⟨10.1016/j.ress.2009.05.015⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02284361

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.05.015

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