Fertile Ground for Conflict

Nicolas Berman (), Mathieu Couttenier and Raphael Soubeyran

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: We investigate how variations in soil productivity affect civil conflicts. We first present a model with heterogeneous land in which variations in input prices (fertilizers) affect appropriable rents and the opportunity costs of fighting. The theory predicts that spikes in input prices increase the likelihood of conicts through their effect on income and inequality, and that this effect is magni fied when soil fertility is naturally more heterogenous. We test these predictions using data on conict events covering all Sub-Saharan African countries at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude and longitude over the 1997-2013 period. We combine information on soil characteristics and worldwide variations in fertilizer prices to identify local exogenous changes in input costs. As predicted, variations in soil productivity triggered by variations in fertilizer prices are positively associated with conicts, especially in cells where land endowments are more heterogeneous. In addition, we find that the distribution of land fertility both within and across ethnic groups affects violence, and that the effect of between-group heterogeneity in soil quality is magnified in densely populated areas. Overall, our findings imply that inequality in access to fertile areas { an issue largely neglected in the literature dealing with the roots of Sub-Saharan African civil wars { constitutes a serious threat to peace at the local-level.

Keywords: conflict; land; fertility; inequality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02315795v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Published in Journal of the European Economic Association, 2021, 19 (1), pp.82-127. ⟨10.1093/jeea/jvz068⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-02315795v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Fertile Ground for Conflict (2021)
Working Paper: Fertile Ground for Conflicts (2018)
Working Paper: Fertile Ground for Conflicts (2018)
Working Paper: Fertile Ground for Conflict (2017)
Working Paper: Fertile Ground for Conflict (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02315795

DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvz068

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().