Crisis contagion in the world trade network

Célestin Coquidé (), José Lages and Dima Shepelyansky ()
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Célestin Coquidé: UTINAM - Univers, Théorie, Interfaces, Nanostructures, Atmosphère et environnement, Molécules (UMR 6213) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]
Dima Shepelyansky: ICQ - Cohérence Quantique (LPT) - LPT - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique - IRSAMC - Institut de Recherche sur les Systèmes Atomiques et Moléculaires Complexes - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LPT - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique - IRSAMC - Institut de Recherche sur les Systèmes Atomiques et Moléculaires Complexes - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: We present a model of worldwide crisis contagion based on the Google matrix analysis of the world trade network obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The fraction of bankrupted countries exhibits an \textit{on-off} phase transition governed by a bankruptcy threshold $\kappa$ related to the trade balance of the countries. For $\kappa>\kappa_c$, the contagion is circumscribed to less than 10\% of the countries, whereas, for $\kappa

Keywords: World trade; complex networks; PageRank; crisis; contagion; phase transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09-18
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02482438v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Applied Network Science, 2020, 5, pp.67. ⟨10.1007/s41109-020-00304-z⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02482438

DOI: 10.1007/s41109-020-00304-z

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