An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers' land investment decisions

Analyse des écarts entre les intentions d'achat de terres par les agriculteurs européens et les achats réalisés

Marianne Lefebvre (), Meri Raggi, Sergio Gomez-Y-Paloma and Davide Viaggi
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Sergio Gomez-Y-Paloma: ITU - JRC Institute for Transuranium Elements [Karlsruhe] - JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Karlsruhe]
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sergio Gomez Y Paloma

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Abstract: The objective of this paper is to explain the discrepancy between farmers' investment intentions and the observed realisations. We analyse the stated intentions with regard to investments in land on the part of 171 farmers in 6 EU case study areas (collected in 2006) and their realised investments between 2006 and 2009. While the farmers who had no intention to invest mostly follow their plans, only 36% of those who intended to invest in 2006 have done so by 2009. We set up a recursive bivariate probit model in which intention is an endogeneous regressor of the realisation. We show that stated intentions are a reasonably good predictor of realised actions, and highlight drivers of the discrepancy between intentions and realisations, such as pessimistic expectations regarding the future of both agricultural markets and the farm when no successor is known. Some recommendations on the use of stated intention surveys to study the farming sector are provided. Résumé:

Keywords: recursive bivariate probit; investment; agriculture; land; stated intentions; survey; enquête; investissement; intention; probit bivarié récursif; terre; préférences déclarées (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-angers.hal.science/hal-02519061v1
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Published in Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement - Review of agricultural and environmental studies, 2014, 95 (1), pp.51-75. ⟨10.4074/S1966960714011047⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions (2014)
Journal Article: An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions (2014)
Journal Article: An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02519061

DOI: 10.4074/S1966960714011047

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