Worldwide Economic Recoveries from Financial Crises Through the Decades

Sylvain Barthélemy, Marie-Estelle Binet () and Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte ()
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Sylvain Barthélemy: TAC - Cabinet français de recherche appliquée en économie et finance - Cabinet français de recherche appliquée en économie et finance

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Abstract: The profiles of economic recoveries after a financial crisis are identified through a self-organizing map, covering 104 countries during 1973–2017. First and surprisingly, only 55% of the 276 events belong to the usual V-U-L classification. New S-shaped bounce-back recoveries, D(oomed) ones, and double-dip M occur in 23%, 18%, and 4% of the cases, respectively. Second, the frequencies of profiles vary with the crisis type, countries' development and location, and over time. Third, unlike government spending, supporting domestic credit, liquidity, foreign trade or else the exchange rate after the crisis may help activity bounce back.

Keywords: Economic Recovery; Early Warning Signals; Financial Crises; Output Gap; Self-Organizing Map; Multinomial Logit Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02555515v1
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Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, 2020, 105, pp.102204. ⟨10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102204⟩

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Journal Article: Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02555515

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102204

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