On the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports

Martin Henseler, Isabelle Piot-Lepetit (), Aida Gonzalez Mellado, Emanuele Ferrari, Martin Banse, Harald Grethe, Claudia Parisi and Sophie Helaine ()
Additional contact information
Isabelle Piot-Lepetit: Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, IPTS - JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies - JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Seville]
Aida Gonzalez Mellado: IPTS - JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies - JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Seville]
Martin Banse: Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries
Sophie Helaine: IPTS - JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies - JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Seville]

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Abstract: Due to their high protein content, soybeans are important feedstuffs in the European Union (EU). However, the cultivation of soybeans using genetically modified (GM) varieties in non-EU countries is increasing and the EU authorization of GM products takes longer than in other countries, leading to an asynchronous approval between the EU and non-EU countries that might induce soybean trade disruptions. This paper uses an integrated modelling system to simulate Argentina, Brazil and the United States ending soybean exports to the EU. The impact on world trade and on the EU import prices of soy products is analysed with a computable general equilibrium model. EU soy imports are shown to decline, and the import price of soybeans in the EU increases. The effects on EU agricultural markets are analysed based on a partial equilibrium model. Feed costs in the EU are found to increase with poultry and pork the most affected: production and exports decline and imports increase. However, the effects of a trade ban are found to be less profound than in many other studies due to compensating substitution effects at various market levels: increasing imports from third countries, increasing domestic oilseed production and the use of other protein feeds.

Keywords: asynchronous approval; zero tolerance; trade disruption; GTAP-AGR; ESIM; genetically modified crops; soybeans; CGE model; PE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

Published in Food Policy, 2013, 41, pp.166-176. ⟨10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.05.005⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02646480

DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.05.005

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