Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

William R.L. Anderegg, Anna T. Trugman, Grayson Badgley, Christa M. Anderson, Ann M. Bartuska, Philippe Ciais (), Danny Cullenward, Christopher B. Field, Jeremy Freeman, Scott J. Goetz, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Deborah Nicole Huntzinger, Robert B. Jackson, John Nickerson, Stephen W. Pacala and James T. Randerson
Additional contact information
William R.L. Anderegg: University of Utah
Anna T. Trugman: UC Santa Barbara - University of California [Santa Barbara] - UC - University of California
Grayson Badgley: University of Utah
Christa M. Anderson: World Wildlife Fund, Washington
Ann M. Bartuska: RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE WASHINGTON DC USA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture
Philippe Ciais: LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
Christopher B. Field: Stanford University
Scott J. Goetz: SICCS - School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems - Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff]
Jeffrey A. Hicke: DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO MOSCOW IDAHO USA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture
Deborah Nicole Huntzinger: Stanford University
Robert B. Jackson: Stanford University
Stephen W. Pacala: Princeton University
James T. Randerson: DEPARTMENT OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IRVINE CA USA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture

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Abstract: Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions. Copyright

Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in Science, 2020, 368 (6497), ⟨10.1126/science.aaz7005⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02883164

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz7005

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