Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models

Ulrich Nguemdjo, Freeman Meno, Audric Dongfack and Bruno Ventelou
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Ulrich Nguemdjo: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LPED - Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AMU - Aix Marseille Université
Freeman Meno: Lycée Polyvalent Franklin Roosevelt
Audric Dongfack: ECM - École Centrale de Marseille

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Abstract: This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.

Keywords: COVID 19; Public and occupational health; Cameroon; Infectious disease epidemiology; Respiratory infections; Viral evolution; Hygiene; Infectious disease control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-08-25
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-02941632v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in PLoS ONE, 2020, 15 (8), pp.e0237832. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0237832⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02941632

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237832

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