Disruption in Circularity? Impact analysis of COVID-19 on ship recycling using Weibull tonnage estimation and scenario analysis method

S. M. Mizanur Rahman, Junbeum Kim and Bertrand Laratte
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S. M. Mizanur Rahman: INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Bordeaux INP - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux
Junbeum Kim: InSyTE - Interdisciplinary research on Society-Technology-Environment - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes
Bertrand Laratte: I2M - Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies

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Abstract: The sustainability of the ship recycling industry strongly linked with the global shipping market and interna-tional commodity flows. More than 80% of the End of Life (EoL) ships are dismantled in South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Due to measures taken to minimize the propagation of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), an international supply chain is broken to a historic low, except for certain medical-related urgencies. Due to the disruption of global supply chains, the industry may submerge into uncertainty due to, perhaps, lack of adequate labor force to dismantle increased EoL ships and due to disturbances of vessel transportation to the recycling nations amid strong precautionary measures. Our estimate suggests that about 300 million Gross Tonnage (GT) available for demolition in the next five years and the inability to get them recycled would cost about 20 billion dollars. More importantly, South Asian recycling nations would suffer from economic losses and employment opportunities. In this study, we also apply a scenario analysis technique to understand the impact range of COVID-19 in the short term and in the long term. The disruption is viewed through a circular economy framework, identifying a critical lack of ‘global scale' acknowledgment in the cir-cular economy framework. This article suggests that a formalized global scale, paralleled with favorable policies, may reduce supply chain disruption and improve sustainable development in the receiving nations.

Keywords: ship recycling; scenario analysis; global circular economy; disruption response; circular economy; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02946987v2
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2021, 164, pp.105139. ⟨10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105139⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02946987

DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105139

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