The future costs of renewable electricity generation technologies in Lebanon: what projections for 2030 ?

Nour Wehbe ()
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Nour Wehbe: UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper presents the findings of our study on forecasting the levelized cost of electricity of different electricity generation technologies including renewable energy (solar PV, hydropower, biomass and wind) until 2030. Usually, the cost of electrical generation from renewable and conventional sources are compared by using the LCOE method (Levelized Cost Of Energy). In general, the LCOE is calculated based on the assumptions for each technology. In this paper, we evaluate the LCOE of the various electricity generation techniques for the case of Lebanon. The study predicts future evolution of these costs in Lebanon until 2030 according to specic assumptions related to each technology and taking into account the triple aspects : technical, economic and environmental. The generation costs don't depend only on investment, maintenance and fuel costs, but also on the cost of carbon emitted by each technology per unit of the electricity produced. We focus our analysis on these assumptions and the impact of their variability on the cost by using sensitivity analysis. Our study shows that by 2030, renewable generation technologies will remain more expensive than fossil-fueled technologies. However, within certain measures taken by the State, as integration of a carbon price, renewable energy resources could emerge strongly in the electricity generation investment planning and become much competitive.

Keywords: Electricity of Lebanon; Renewable Energy Market; Levelized Cost Of Electricity; Cost Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-02951669v1
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Published in Renewable Energy Resources assessment and Development in MENA/Mediterranean Region., inPress

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