Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change

Jie Chen, Yujie Liu, Tao Pan, Philippe Ciais (), Ting Ma, Yanhua Liu, Dai Yamazaki, Quansheng Ge and Josep Peñuelas
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Jie Chen: IGSNRR - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch], UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
Yujie Liu: IGSNRR - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch], UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
Tao Pan: IGSNRR - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch], UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
Philippe Ciais: LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
Ting Ma: IGSNRR - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch]
Yanhua Liu: IGSNRR - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch]
Dai Yamazaki: UTokyo - Tōkyō teikoku daigaku = University of Tokyo [Tokyo]
Quansheng Ge: IGSNRR - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch], UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
Josep Peñuelas: CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries = Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals - CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain], UAB - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona = Autonomous University of Barcelona = Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona

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Abstract: Growing evidence indicates that the risk of heat extremes will increase as climate change progresses and create a significant threat to public health and the economy. Socioeconomic exposure is the key component for assessing the risk of such events. To quantify socioeconomic exposure to heat extremes for 2016–2035 and 2046–2065, we use the projections of five global climate models forced by using three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP), and we take into account the geographic change in the distribution in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The exposure of the global population for 2046–2065 is the greatest under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, up to 1037(±164) × 109 person-days, and the global GDP exposure for 2046–2065 is greatest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario, up to 18(±2) × 1015 dollar-days. Asia has the highest exposure among all continents for both population and GDP, accounting for over half of the global exposure. Africa has the largest increase in exposure, with the annual population and GDP exposures increasing by over 9- and 29-fold, respectively, compared with the base period (1986–2005). The effect of climate makes the dominant contribution (47%–53%) globally for the change in population exposure. Changes in the geographic distribution of GDP cause nearly 50% of the total change in GDP exposure for 2016–2035. Mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases, either at the level of the RCP2.6 scenario or at a more ambitious target, is essential for reducing socioeconomic exposure to heat extremes. In addition, designing and implementing effective measures of adaptation are urgently needed in Asia and Africa to aid socioeconomic systems suffering from heat extremes due to climate change.

Date: 2020
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02970803v1
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Published in Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 277, pp.123275. ⟨10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123275⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02970803

DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123275

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