The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Eleonora Martinelli, Antonia Stenstad, Prajal Pradhan, Sabine Gabrysch, Abhijeet Mishra, Isabelle Weindl, Chantal Le Mouël, Susanne Rolinski, Lavinia Baumstark, Xiaoxi Wang, Jillian Waid, Hermann Lotze-Campen and Alexander Popp
Additional contact information
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jan Philipp Dietrich: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Eleonora Martinelli: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Antonia Stenstad: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Prajal Pradhan: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Sabine Gabrysch: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Abhijeet Mishra: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Isabelle Weindl: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Susanne Rolinski: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Lavinia Baumstark: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Xiaoxi Wang: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jillian Waid: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hermann Lotze-Campen: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Alexander Popp: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45% (39-52%) of the world population will be overweight and 16% (13-20%) obese, compared to 29% and 9% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4-0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal-source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increases insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43-47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal-source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand.

Date: 2020-12
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Scientific Reports, 2020, 10 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03030437

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().