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Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications

Kenza Benhima () and Céline Poilly ()
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Céline Poilly: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: We assess the role of demand noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about demand) together with supply noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about supply). To do so, we propose a methodology to decompose business cycles into supply, demand, supply noise and demand noise shocks, using a structural vector autoregression model. Key to our identification of both supply noise and demand noise is the use of sign restrictions on survey expectation errors about output growth and about inflation. We show that demand-related noise shocks have a negative effect on output and contribute substantially to its fluctuations. Monetary policy and private information seem to play a key role in the transmission of demand noise shocks.

Keywords: business cycle; information friction; noise shock; SVAR with sign restriction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban and nep-mac
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Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, 2021, 117, pp.278-295. ⟨10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.006⟩

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Journal Article: Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications (2021) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03173423

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.006

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