De l'Euphorie à la Panique: Une Relecture de l'Instabilité Financière des Années 1980 dans la Zone BEAC

Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua ()
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Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua: Université de Yaoundé II

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Abstract: This paper offers a fresh reading of the financial instability experienced by the countries of the BEAC Area during the 1980s, according to the analyses of three major authors on financial crises theories: Irving Fisher, Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger (this is what we call: "the Fiminski model"). Our analysis consists in the decomposition of the financial history of the countries of this sub-region into 04 main periods: the displacement, the euphoria, the distress and the panic (culminating in 1994 with the CFA devaluation) with statistical tools. It shows that throughout ages, financial instability eternally repeats itself if lessons are not learned from the past. This rereading also allows us to explain why, despite the recent resurgence of poor banking governance, Ponzi financing, speculative temperament, budgetary tensions, spectacular fall in the currency external coverage rates that make the subregion a place where financial instability grows up, the systemic risk has been contained in the BEAC Area these years.

Keywords: CEMAC; Zone BEAC; hasard moral; turbulences financières; instabilité financière; Modèle de Fiminski (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03198360v1
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Published in 2019, pp.109-143

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03198360

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