Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming

Isabelle Tobin, W Greuell, Sonia Jerez, F Ludwig, R Vautard (), Michelle van Vliet and Francois-Marie Breon ()
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Isabelle Tobin: LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
W Greuell: WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Sonia Jerez: Universidad de Murcia
F Ludwig: WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
R Vautard: ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives
Michelle van Vliet: WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Francois-Marie Breon: SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires - LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - DRF (CEA) - Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives

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Abstract: The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.

Keywords: electricity generation; climate change impacts; wind power; solar pv; thermoelectric; hydropower (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03323340v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (4), pp.044024. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aab211⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03323340

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab211

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