Stochastic asymmetric repartition of lytic machinery in dividing CD8+ T cells generates heterogeneous killing behavior

Fanny Lafouresse, Romain Jugele, Sabina Müller, Marine Doineau, Valérie Duplan-Eche (), Eric Espinosa (), Marie-Pierre Puissegur, Sébastien Gadat () and Salvatore Valitutti
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Fanny Lafouresse: CRCT - Centre de Recherches en Cancérologie de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Romain Jugele: CRCT - Centre de Recherches en Cancérologie de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Sabina Müller: CRCT - Centre de Recherches en Cancérologie de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Marine Doineau: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Valérie Duplan-Eche: CPTP - Centre de Physiopathologie Toulouse Purpan - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Eric Espinosa: CRCT - Centre de Recherches en Cancérologie de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Marie-Pierre Puissegur: CRCT - Centre de Recherches en Cancérologie de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Salvatore Valitutti: CRCT - Centre de Recherches en Cancérologie de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IUCT Oncopole - UMR 1037 - Institut Universitaire du Cancer de Toulouse - Oncopole - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - CHU Toulouse - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale

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Abstract: I calibrate a Multiple‐Risk Susceptible–Infected–Recovered model on the covid pandemic to analyze the impact of the age‐specific confinement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing policies on incomes and mortality. Two polar strategies emerge as potentially optimal. The suppression policy would crush the curve by confining 90% of the population for 4 months to eradicate the virus. The flatten‐thecurve policy would reduce the confinement to 30% of the population for 5 months, followed by almost 1 year of free circulation of the virus to attain herd immunity without overwhelming hospitals.Both strategies yield a total cost of around 15% of annual gross domestic product (GDP) when combining the economic cost of confinement with the value of lives lost. I show that hesitating between the two strategies can have a huge societal cost, in particular if the suppression policy is stopped too early. Because seniors are much more vulnerable, a simple recommendation emerges to shelter them as one deconfines young and middle‐aged people to build our collective herd immunity. By doing so, one reduces the death toll of the pandemic together with the economic cost of the confinement, and the total cost is divided by a factor 2. I also show that expanding the mass testing capacity to screen people sent back to work has a large benefit under various scenarios.This analysis is highly dependent upon deeply uncertain epidemiologic, sociological, economic, and ethical parameters.

Date: 2021-01-11
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03369410v1
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Published in eLife, 2021, 10, ⟨10.7554/eLife.62691⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03369410

DOI: 10.7554/eLife.62691

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