Cyber contagion: impact of the network structure on the losses of an insurance portfolio

Caroline Hillairet (), Olivier Lopez (), Louise d'Oultremont and Brieuc Spoorenberg
Additional contact information
Caroline Hillairet: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Olivier Lopez: LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: In this paper, we provide a model that aims to describe the impact of a massive cyber attack on an insurance portfolio, taking into account the structure of the network. Due to the contagion, such an event can rapidly generate consequent damages, and mutualization of the losses may not hold anymore. The composition of the portfolio should therefore be diversified enough to prevent or reduce the impact of such events, with the difficulty that the relationships between actor is difficult to assess. Our approach consists in introducing a multi-group epidemiological model which, apart from its ability to describe the intensity of connections between actors, can be calibrated from a relatively small amount of data, and through fast numerical procedures. We show how this model can be used to generate reasonable scenarios of cyber events, and investigate the response to different types of attacks or behavior of the actors, allowing to quantify the benefit of an efficient prevention policy.

Keywords: Cyber insurance; cyber risk; compartmental models; multi-SIR; network structures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-11-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-net and nep-rmg
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03388840v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2022

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03388840v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03388840

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().