Horizon 2050: où la dynamique actuelle mène-t-elle l'économie mondiale ?

Lionel Fontagné, Erica Perego and Gianluca Santoni

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Abstract: Pandemics, global warming, food security, ageing, depletion of certain raw materials... Our economies are confronted with global problems, calling for the long term and raising intergenerational questions. To guide economic policies, it is therefore essential to have a coherent framework for thinking. The MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy) model, developed by CEPII, makes it possible to draw the basic trends of the world economy up to 2050. If we assume that the current growth and technological catch-up dynamics will continue, and taking into account demographic dynamics, the balance of economic power will be strongly transformed over the next generation. Above all, energy consumption is expected to continue to grow at a sustained rate, up to a doubling, despite efforts to improve energy efficiency. Ambitious policies to decarbonise our economies will then be necessary to make the prospects for economic growth sustainable.

Keywords: Growth models; Long-term growth; Economic projections; Energy consumption; Modèles de croissance; Croissance à long-terme; Projections économiques; Consommation d'énergie (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-11-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03436070
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Published in La Lettre du CEPII, 2021, 421

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Journal Article: Horizon 2050: où la dynamique actuelle mène-t-elle l’économie mondiale ? (2021)
Working Paper: Horizon 2050: où la dynamique actuelle mène-t-elle l'économie mondiale ? (2021)
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