Bridging socioeconomic pathways of CO2 emission and credit risk

Florian Bourgey (), Emmanuel Gobet () and Ying Jiao ()
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Florian Bourgey: CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Bloomberg L.P. Quantitative Finance Research - Bloomberg L.P.
Emmanuel Gobet: CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Ying Jiao: ISFA - Institut de Science Financière et d'Assurances

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Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of transition risk on a firm's low-carbon production. As the world is facing global climate changes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set the idealized carbon-neutral scenario around 2050. In the meantime, many carbon reduction scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been proposed in the literature for different production sectors in more comprehensive socioeconomic context. In this paper, we consider, on the one hand, a firm that aims to optimize its emission level under the double objectives of maximizing its production profit and respecting the emission mitigation scenarios. Solving the penalized optimization problem provides the optimal emission according to a given SSP benchmark. On the other hand, such transitions affect the firm's credit risk. We model the default time by using the structural default approach. We are particularly concerned with how the adopted strategies by following different SSPs scenarios may influence the firm's default probability.

Keywords: Climate risk; transition risk; credit risk; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; carbon emission reduction; optimal production profit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-12-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-rmg
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Published in Annals of Operations Research, 2022, ⟨10.1007/s10479-022-05135-y⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458299

DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-05135-y

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