Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France

Jerome Creel, Paola Veroni () and Francesco Saraceno ()
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Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Francesco Saraceno: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Assessing the discretionary component of a fiscal policy is a difficult task. With a vector autoregressive model of the us economy and thanks to an original identification procedure, Blanchard and Perotti [2002, qje] were able to estimate thoroughly the impact on gdp of a discretionary shock on public expenditures or tax receipts. Adopting a longer term view with theoretical restrictions to identify the model deriving from the Fiscal theory of the price level, we show that, in France, the fiscal multiplier grows over time, from 0.8 in the short run (in the best case) to 2 in the long run. The empirical validity of the Fiscal theory is also discussed.

Keywords: Politique budgétaire; Modèle vectoriel autorégressif; PIB américain; Dépenses publiques; Recettes fiscales (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-09
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459628
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Published in Revue Economique, 2007, 58 (5), pp.1035 - 1053. ⟨10.3917/reco.585.1035⟩

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Working Paper: Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459628

DOI: 10.3917/reco.585.1035

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