Politiques monétaires: attention à la trappe

Christophe Blot (), Sabine Le Bayon (), Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart () and Danielle Schweisguth ()
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Although the economic recovery is underway, central banks have so far maintained interest rates at very low levels and kept unconventional measures unchanged in the US, euro area, and in the UK. The Bank of Japan even cut its base rate down to 0% in October 2010. Output levels remain far below their pre-crisis levels. Unemployment is still high and the deflationary risk remains. Consumer price inflation has started to rise again under the effect of higher oil prices, but core inflation keeps on decelerating. There is a risk for the world economy to fall into a liquidity trap. We expect that central banks will keep their interest rates unchanged until the end of 2011. They may even launch new quantitative easing programmes, in order to sustain economic activity, as it is already the case for the US.

Keywords: Politique monétaire; Taux d'intérêt; Assouplissement quantitatif (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460199
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2010, 115, pp.273 - 300. ⟨10.3917/reof.115.0273⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03460199

DOI: 10.3917/reof.115.0273

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