Commerce mondial: croissance sans remous

Catherine Mathieu () and Christophe Blot ()
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Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: World imports of goods rose by almost 10% in real terms in 2006 under rapid output growth notably in emerging economies. World imports will grow by around 8% in 2007 and 2008 less rapidly in industrial countries (7% per year), than in emerging economies, and first of all China (15% per year). The depreciation of the yen and the persistence of favourable relative export price developments will allow Japanese export market shares to stabilise. US exporters will gain market shares owing to the cumulated depreciation of the dollar since 2002, while Chinese exporters will continue to gain market shares. On the contrary, the strong euro will result in losses in market shares in the euro area, at the major exception of Germany where producers have managed to cut significantly their costs in recent years and benefit from a favourable product specialisation.

Keywords: Commerce mondial; Croissance; Importations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03461981
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2007, 101, pp.235 - 244. ⟨10.3917/reof.101.0235⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03461981

DOI: 10.3917/reof.101.0235

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