Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents

Camille Cornand and Paul Hubert

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Abstract: We compare disagreement in expectations and the frequency of forecast revisions among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. We provide evidence of disagreement among all categories of agents. There is however a strong heterogeneity across categories: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. This translates into a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revision across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households last revise less frequently. We are also able to explore the external validity of experimental expectations.

Keywords: inflation expectations; information frictions; disagreement; forecast revisions; experimental forecasts; survey forecasts; central bank forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03468918v1
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Published in European Economic Review, 2022, 146, pp.104175. ⟨10.2139/ssrn.3928619⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents (2021)
Working Paper: Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents (2021)
Working Paper: Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03468918

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3928619

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