La route vers la déflation ?

Hervé Péléraux (), Danielle Schweisguth (), Xavier Timbeau, Céline Antonin, Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard (), Amel Falah (), Eric Heyer, Sabine Le Bayon (), Catherine Mathieu (), Paola Veroni (), Christine Rifflart () and Mathieu Plane
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Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: The recessive shock is behind us. We expect world GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2011. In emerging countries, especially in Asia, activity has recently reached its previous peak or is even higher. The 2010 sovereign debt crisis had a moderate impact on euro area GDP growth. In the US, growth has recently slowed down, but there is no doubt about the Federal Reserve's pragmatism. However, in industrial countries, which are close to or already in a liquidity trap, deflation is the main danger, because of a too rapid and too strong fiscal consolidation. A rise in real interest rates would worsen the recession. Accounting for the size of fiscal multipliers and an already expansionary monetary policy, a global fiscal stimulus would be necessary – at least in the EU.

Keywords: Prévisions macroéconomiques; Économie mondiale (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03473771
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2010, 115, pp.125 - 144. ⟨10.3917/reof.115.0125⟩

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Working Paper: La route vers la déflation ? (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03473771

DOI: 10.3917/reof.115.0125

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