En attendant la reprise

Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard (), Hervé Péléraux () and Mathieu Plane
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Recent development in the French economy is ambivalent. On the one hand, the return to growth has accelerated, and economic sentiment indicators have improved at the end of 2009. But on the other hand, household sentiment indicators have plunged again in early 2010, while renewed inflation reduces purchasing power. Industrial overcapacities and high unemployment will delay the recovery – an investment recovery thanks to the credit rebound, pulling up wages and thus consumption growth. The tightening of fiscal policy in 2010 and 2011 will even delay the recovery. After a severe recession, the French economy will grow at a pace below potential in 2010 and 2011 (0.9% and 1.4%). The persistent output gap will therefore further increase unemployment. The public deficit would reach 8% in 2010 and 7.2% in 2011.

Keywords: Prévisions macroéconomiques françaises; Taux de chômage; PIB (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-04
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2010, 113, pp.141 - 205. ⟨10.3917/reof.113.0141⟩

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Working Paper: En attendant la reprise (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03476066

DOI: 10.3917/reof.113.0141

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