Index Insurance and Agricultural Decisions: Assessing the External Validity of Multiple Randomized Controlled Trials

Pauline Castaing ()
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Pauline Castaing: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne

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Abstract: The last decade has seen an explosion in the number of randomized experiments in Social Science. While the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics emphasized their value for causal identification, concerns remain regarding their external validity. The literature on index insurance makes no exception. Mounting experimental evidence suggests that index insurance favors risk taking. However, the extent to which internally valid estimates are informative about effects in other contexts is still unclear. Using data from multiple randomized controlled trials and a Bayesian framework, this paper provides important inputs to gauge the external validity of index insurance experiments. In particular, we present preregistered evidence on: (i) the average effect of index insurance on production decisions; (ii) the degree of heterogeneity in effects across studies; (iii) the potential sources of heterogeneity; and (iv) the predicted effect of index insurance in a new study.

Date: 2021-11-25
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Published in 20th EUDN PhD Workshop on Development Economics, Nov 2021, Online, France

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03525911

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