Equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets

René Aïd, Andrea Cosso and Huyên Pham
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René Aïd: FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CREST - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Huyên Pham: LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité

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Abstract: We formulate an equilibrium model of intraday trading in electricity markets. Agents face balancing constraints between their customers consumption plus intraday sales and their production plus intraday purchases. They have continuously updated forecast of their customers consumption at maturity. Forecasts are prone to idiosyncratic noise and common noise (weather). Agents production capacities are subject to independent random outages, which are each modeled by a Markov chain. The equilibrium price is defined as the price that minimizes trading cost plus imbalance cost of each agent and satisfies the usual market clearing condition. Existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium are proved, and we show that the equilibrium price and the optimal trading strategies are martingales. The main economic insights are the following: (i) when there is no uncertainty on generation, it is shown that the market price is a convex combination of forecasted marginal cost of each agent, with deterministic weights. Furthermore, the equilibrium market price is consistent with Almgren and Chriss's model, and we identify the fundamental part and the permanent market impact. It turns out that heterogeneity across agents is a necessary condition for Samuelson's effect to hold. We show that when heterogeneity lies only on costs, Samuelson's effect holds true. A similar result stands when heterogeneity lies only on market access quality. (ii) When there is production uncertainty only, we provide an approximation of the equilibrium for large number of players. The resulting price exhibits increasing volatility with time.

Keywords: coupled forward–backward SDE with jumps; equilibrium model; intraday electricity markets; martingale optimality principle; Samuelson’s effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03529221v1
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Published in Mathematical Finance, 2021, 32 (2), pp.517-554. ⟨10.1111/mafi.12340⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03529221

DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12340

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