The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

Florian Leblanc (), Ruben Bibas, Silvana Mima (), Matteo Muratori, Shogo Sakamoto, Fuminori Sano, Nico Bauer, Vassilis Daioglou, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Estsushi Kato, Steven Rose, Junichi Tsutsui, Detlef van Vuuren, John Weyant and Marshall Wise
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Florian Leblanc: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Ruben Bibas: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Silvana Mima: GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Matteo Muratori: NREL - National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Shogo Sakamoto: CRIEPI - Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Fuminori Sano: RITE - Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth [Kyoto]
Nico Bauer: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Vassilis Daioglou: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
Shinichiro Fujimori: NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies, Kyoto University
Matthew Gidden: Climate Analytics, IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Estsushi Kato: IAE - Institute of Applied Energy
Steven Rose: EPRI - Electric Power Research Institute
Junichi Tsutsui: CRIEPI - Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Detlef van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
John Weyant: Stanford University
Marshall Wise: UMD - University of Maryland [College Park] - University System of Maryland

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Abstract: The expected growth in the demand for mobility and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an integrated analysis leveraging various assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, models project that bioenergy can provide in average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) in 2100 for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This is 9-62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through the electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100, compared to 10% for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 300 to 670 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

Keywords: Bioenergy; Transport sector; Lignocellulosic fuels; Climate mitigation; Integrated Assessment Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ban, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tre
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03558507v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Climatic Change, 2022, 170 (3-4), ⟨10.1007/s10584-021-03245-3⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03558507

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03245-3

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