Two sides of the same coin? Viet Nam’s macro resilience under trade-led growth

Thi Anh-Dao Tran (), Elodie Mania and Arsène Rieber
Additional contact information
Thi Anh-Dao Tran: IRASEC - Institut de Recherche sur l'Asie du Sud-est Contemporaine - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université
Elodie Mania: LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université
Arsène Rieber: LASTA - Laboratoire d'Analyse des Sociétés, Transformations et Adaptations - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Viet Nam is following the successive waves of rapid industrialization in Asia by implementing an export-oriented growth strategy. The country is strongly integrated into global value chains. However, a key concern is whether such trade-led growth is sustainable in the long run and resilient to global shocks. Drawing on a multi-country balance-of-payments-constrained growth model, our objective in the present paper is threefold. Firstly, we examine Viet Nam's growth performance over the past 30 years of transition and integration. More specifically, we measure the respective contribution of partner areas to its external constraint. Secondly, we analyze how and through which transmission channels the changing geography of international trade has impacted the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate before and after Viet Nam joined the WTO in 2007. A decomposition of the external constraint into different factors from different sources is proposed in order to assess the outcomes of WTO accession. Lastly, we assess the country's ability to face the current Covid-19 pandemic. Given its deep integration into the global economy, the geography of trade relations is critical in determining Viet Nam's vulnerability. This corroborates recent development studies that make a case for partner diversification and growth re-orientation in order to build macro resilience.

Keywords: Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model; Trade inter-linkages; Macro resilience; East and Southeast Asia; Vietnam (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-01-24
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Post-Communist Economies, 2022, 34 (4), pp.445-477. ⟨10.1080/14631377.2021.2006483⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03562297

DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006483

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().