Zone euro: après l’enfer, le purgatoire

Céline Antonin, Christophe Blot (), Paola Veroni () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: After four quarters of strong fall, GDP declined by "only" 0,1 % in the second quarter of 2009, showing the first sign of stabilization since the beginning of the crisis. The recession is due to both a decline of internal demand (mainly private consumption and productive investment) and of exports. The unemployment rate increased by more than two points, reaching 9,3 % in the second quarter of 2009. Quarterly growth should turn positive in the third quarter of 2009, thanks to a rebound of investment and a positive contribution of inventories. But as private agents would keep lowering their indebtedness, this would hamper the growth of private demand. With GDP growing only by 0,8 % in 2010, the standard of living per capita would remain largely below the pre-crisis level.

Keywords: Prévisions macroéconomiques européennes; Zone euro (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03604475
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2009, 111, pp.157 - 171. ⟨10.3917/reof.111.0157⟩

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Working Paper: Zone euro: après l’enfer, le purgatoire (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03604475

DOI: 10.3917/reof.111.0157

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