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The Macroeconomic Impact of the 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden

Martin Karlsson, Mykhailo Matvieiev and Maksym Obrizan ()
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Martin Karlsson: Universitat Duisberg-Essen
Mykhailo Matvieiev: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we develop an overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and calibrate it to the Swedish historical data in order to estimate the economic cost of the 1918–19 influenza pandemic. The model identifies survivors from younger cohorts as main benefactors of the windfall bequests following the influenza mortality shock. We also show that the general equilibrium effects of the pandemic reveal themselves over the wage channel rather than the interest rate, fertility or labor supply channels. Finally, we demonstrate that the influenza mortality shock becomes persistent, driving the aggregate variables to lower steady states which costs the economy 1.819% of the output loss over the next century.

Keywords: epidemics; overlapping generations models; 1918-19 influenza; endogenous fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03661049
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Published in B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, In press, ⟨10.1515/bejm-2021-0018⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03661049

DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2021-0018

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