Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology

Mignon, Valérie; Aviat, Antonin; Bec, Frédérique; Diebolt, Claude; Doz, Catherine; Ferrand, Denis; Ferrara, Laurent; Heyer, Eric; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain

Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology

Les cycles économiques de la France: une datation de référence

Valérie Mignon (), Antonin Aviat, Frédérique Bec, Claude Diebolt, Catherine Doz (), Denis Ferrand, Laurent Ferrara, Eric Heyer and Pierre-Alain Pionnier
Additional contact information
Antonin Aviat: SER Washington
Catherine Doz: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Denis Ferrand: Rexecode, Paris
Pierre-Alain Pionnier: OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Abstract: This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020.

Keywords: Business cycles; French economy; Dating; Narrative approach; Econometric modeling; Cycles économiques; Economie française; Datation; Analyse narrative; Modèles économétriques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03661598v1
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Published in Revue Economique, 2023, 74 (2023/2), pp.5-52. ⟨10.3917/reco.742.0005⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03661598

DOI: 10.3917/reco.742.0005

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