Exploring deep decarbonization pathways for Argentina

Francisco Lallana (), Gonzalo Bravo, Gaëlle Le Treut, Julien Lefevre (), Gustavo Nadal and Nicolás Di Sbroiavacca
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Gaëlle Le Treut: ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées
Julien Lefevre: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: To align near term action with a deep decarbonization objective by 2050, a long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategy is needed and involves drastic changes to the energy system and the AFOLU sectors. To help move forward the policy debate in this direction, this paper explores deep decarbonization pathways for the country until 2050 which break with existing more conservative national scenarios. It uses a combined qualitative-quantitative deep decarbonization pathway method based on the complementarity between exploratory storylines and the quantification of pathways based on linked energy-economy models. The built pathways show how deep decarbonization could be reached in Argentina along with other economic development goals and through contrasted possible routes all involving significant changes to the energy and AFOLU sectors. Remarkably, afforestation stands out as a key sectorial measure for reaching DDP. We contrast two alternative DDP Scenarios with a BAU one with specific focus on CO2 emissions, with emphasis on energy sector demand and supply alternatives. Many of the energy initiatives proposed for the BAU scenario were maintained but increased in ambition and many others were incorporated only in these deep decarbonization scenarios. While the HardPath proposes and requires natural gas use-with CO2 capture and storage-the Enlighten scenario proposes replacing it by hydro-nuclear energy. Finally, in none of the DDP scenarios is the export of natural gas proposed as an explicit energy policy objective, since little space is considered in external markets for fossil fuels, within the framework of a global action aimed at decarbonization.

Keywords: Argentina; Deep Decarbonization Pathway; Low-carbon Transition; Energy-economy modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://agroparistech.hal.science/hal-03663087v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Energy Strategy Reviews, 2021, 36, pp.100670. ⟨10.1016/j.esr.2021.100670⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03663087

DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100670

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