Analyzing the impacts of socio-economic factors on French departmental elections with CoDa methods

Thi-Huong-An Nguyen, Thibault Laurent, Christine Thomas-Agnan and Anne Ruiz-Gazen
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Thi-Huong-An Nguyen: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Thibault Laurent: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: The vote shares by party on a given subdivision of a territory form a vector called composition (mathematically, a vector belonging to a simplex). It is interesting to model these shares and study the impact of the characteristics of the territorial units on the outcome of the elections. In the political economy literature, few regression models are adapted to the case of more than two political parties. In the statistical literature, there are regression models adapted to share vectors including Compositional Data (CoDa) models, but also Dirichlet models, and others. Our goal is to discuss and illustrate the use CoDa regression models for political economy models for more than two parties. The models are fitted on French electoral data of the 2015 departmental elections.

Keywords: Political economy; Compositional regression models; Multiparty; Vote shares; French departmental election; Gaussian distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03721994v1
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Published in Journal of Applied Statistics, 2022, 49 (5), pp.1235-1251. ⟨10.1080/02664763.2020.1858274⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03721994

DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1858274

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