The Effect of COVID Certificates on Vaccine Uptake, Health Outcomes, and the Economy

Miquel Oliu-Barton (), Bary Pradelski (), Nicolas Woloszko (), Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Philippe Aghion (), Patrick Artus, Arnaud Fontanet, Philippe Martin and Guntram Wolff
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Miquel Oliu-Barton: CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Bary Pradelski: CP - CNRS-périodiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, POLARIS - Performance analysis and optimization of LARge Infrastructures and Systems - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Nicolas Woloszko: OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud: Auteur indépendant
Philippe Aghion: INSEAD - Institut Européen d'administration des Affaires, Collège de France - Chaire Economie des institutions, de l'innovation et de la croissance - CdF (institution) - Collège de France, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Patrick Artus: Natixis, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Arnaud Fontanet: IP - Institut Pasteur [Paris], CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents - IP - Institut Pasteur [Paris] - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - UPCité - Université Paris Cité

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Abstract: In the COVID-19 pandemic many countries required COVID certificates, proving vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, to access public and private venues. We estimate their effect on vaccine uptake for France, Germany, and Italy using counterfactuals constructed via innovation diffusion theory. The announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 were associatedalthough causality cannot be directly inferredwith increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7-14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population until the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6-6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4-12.3) p.p. Based on these estimates, an additional 3979 (3453-4298) deaths in France, 1133 (−312-1358) in Germany, and 1331 (502-1794) in Italy were averted; and gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9-6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3-1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0-2.2) billion in Italy were prevented. Notably, in France, the application of COVID certificates averted high intensive care unit occupancy levels where prior lockdowns were instated.

Keywords: Economics; Epidemiology; Health policy; SARS-CoV-2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03813557v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp.3942. ⟨10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of COVID Certificates on Vaccine Uptake, Health Outcomes, and the Economy (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of COVID Certificates on Vaccine Uptake, Health Outcomes, and the Economy (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03813557

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1

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