Indirect Rivalries and Civil Wars: Empirical Evidence

Mahdi Fawaz and Erwan Le Quellec
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Mahdi Fawaz: BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Erwan Le Quellec: BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: n this paper, we develop a new dataset on indirect state rivalry relations based on different matrix calculations for 154 countries, over the period 1970-2015, and demonstrate their importance in explaining civil wars. After controlling for spatial distances between rival countries, we demonstrate that 1) the presence of direct and indirect rivals exerts a positive and significant effect on the risk of civil war; 2) decreasing levels of military capacity of one state relative to its rivals (direct and indirect) also influence the probability of internal conflict. Finally, we confirm the significance of our indicators by using on the one hand the random forest algorithm, a machine learning method using decision trees and on the other hand, the Kaplan-Meier estimate for the duration of the civil wars.

Keywords: Civil wars; international relations; indirect rivalries; military capabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-10-15
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Published in Defence and Peace Economics, 2022, pp.1-28. ⟨10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03833327

DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350

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