The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Andrey Launov and Jean-Marc Robin
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Andrey Launov: UK - University of Kentucky, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics

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Abstract: In this paper we investigate the recent fall in unemployment, and the rise in part-time work and labour market participation among prime-aged Germans. We show that unemployment fell because the Hartz reforms induced a large fraction of the long-term unemployed to deregister as jobseekers. However, labour force participation actually increased because many female non-participants accepted low-paid, part-time jobs. Counterfactual simulations using estimated transition probabilities show that observed changes in the stocks of registered and unregistered unemployment after 2002 essentially resulted from changes in their outflows. These changes are also the main determinants of the dynamics of the stocks of marginal, contributing part-time and full-time employment after 2002. Yet the full decrease in registered male unemployment cannot be explained by the reforms alone.

Keywords: Germany; Unemployment; Part-time work; Mini-jobs; Non-participation; Wage moderation; Hartz reforms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Published in European Economic Review, 2021, 132, pp.103658. ⟨10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103658⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: The fall in german unemployment: A flow analysis (2021)
Working Paper: The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis (2021)
Working Paper: The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis (2020)
Working Paper: The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis (2018)
Working Paper: The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis (2018)
Working Paper: The Fall in German Unemployment: A Flow Analysis (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03868017

DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103658

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