Is economic forecasting a science?

Une science de la prévision économique ?

Olivier Pilmis ()
Additional contact information
Olivier Pilmis: CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Dealing with the scientificity of macroeconomic forecasting, the text highlights some of its properties as a production process. First, macroeconomic forecasting does not rely solely on the use of econometric models, but it is part of a broader division of expert labor. This division involves "epistemic participation", namely the inclusion of "representatives" of the economy itself. This contrasts with the idea of forecasters watching the economy from above. Finally, certain concepts that are at the heart of economic forecasting, such as potential GDP, demonstrate that the descriptions produced by forecasters can never be neutral, but already include political qualifications of economic situations.

Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hpe
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03894747
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Regards croisés sur l'économie, 2022, Temps et économie Capitalisme, changements et incertitudes, 29, pp.211-219. ⟨10.3917/rce.029.0211⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-03894747/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03894747

DOI: 10.3917/rce.029.0211

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().