Using Transport Activity-Based Model to Simulate the Pandemic

Moez Kilani, Ousmane Diop () and Ngagne Diop ()
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Ousmane Diop: ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Ngagne Diop: ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale, TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille

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Abstract: We use an activity-based transport model to simulate the progression of a virus at the regional scale. We analyse several scenarios corresponding to distinct situations and describing how small initial clusters of infected agents expand and reach a pandemic level. We evaluate the effectiveness of some public restrictions and compare the number of infections with respect to the base-case scenario, where no restrictions are in place. We consider the wearing of masks in public transport and/or in some activities (work, leisure and shopping) and the implementation of a lockdown. Our analysis shows that education, including the primary level, is one of the major activities where infections occur. We find that the wearing of masks in transportation only does not yield important impacts. The lockdown is efficient in containing the spread of the virus but, at the same time, significantly increases the length of the wave (factor of two). This is because the number of agents who are susceptible to be infected remains high. Our analysis uses the murdasp tool specifically designed to process the output of transport models and performs the simulation of the pandemic.

Keywords: Kilani; M. Diop; O. Diop; N. Using Transport Activity-Based activity-transport simulations the dynamic of the pandemic (COVID-19) social and physical distancing; M.; Diop; O.; N. Using Transport Activity-Based activity-transport simulations; the dynamic of the pandemic (COVID-19); social and physical distancing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-02-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-tre and nep-ure
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03946166
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Published in Sustainability, In press, 15 (1), pp.2257. ⟨10.3390/su1010000⟩

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Journal Article: Using Transport Activity-Based Model to Simulate the Pandemic (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03946166

DOI: 10.3390/su1010000

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