Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices?

Transmission des prix entre les marchés de l'énergie et du poisson: est-ce que les cours du pétrole représentent de bons prédicteurs des prix du thon ?

Patrice Guillotreau, Frédéric Lantz, Lesya Nadzon, Jonathan Rault and Olivier Maury
Additional contact information
Frédéric Lantz: IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School
Lesya Nadzon: LINDE GAS Benelux
Jonathan Rault: UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier
Olivier Maury: UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation - MARBEC - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier

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Abstract: Because most food processes are fossil fuel-based, many food markets are more or less connected to the oil market. Fishing technology in the high seas being energy-intensive, higher oil prices should affect the fish markets. This research looks at price transmission between Marine Diesel Oil and a global fishery commodity, frozen Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) through a time series analysis combining four different methods to look for possible structural breaks and regime shifts in the relationship (Bai-Perron, Lavielle, Gregory-Hansen, Markov-switching). Our results prove that the long-run equilibrium between both prices is weakening after the turn of the 2010s. Explaining the drivers of change is of great interest for short-term forecast but also to build long-term scenarios where both supply and demand variables are likely to affect tuna markets.

Keywords: Cointegration; oil prices; tuna markets; regime shift; structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-ene
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Published in Marine Resource Economics, 2023, 38 (1), pp.29-46. ⟨10.1086/722490⟩

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Journal Article: Price Transmission between Energy and Fish Markets: Are Oil Rates Good Predictors of Tuna Prices? (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03948692

DOI: 10.1086/722490

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