Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

Tuan Anh Luong, Manh-Hung Nguyen, Khuong Truong and Kien Le
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Tuan Anh Luong: IREEDS - Institute of Research in Economics, Environment and Data Science, De Monfort University
Manh-Hung Nguyen: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Kien Le: Ho Chi Minh City Open University

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Abstract: This paper investigates the extent to which individual migration decisions in Vietnam can be driven by climate change, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual's decision to migrate. We find that doubling the amount of precipitation relative to the long-run local average reduces the probability of migration by 7.5 percent. This result could potentially be driven by individuals who work in the agriculture sector and could have experienced an increase in income as high precipitation could lead to high yield. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam as women are less likely to migrate when being affected by climate change. Policymakers could shift their focus to flood control and water management in affected areas, where people's livelihoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Keywords: Climate change; Rainfall; Migration; Gender inequality; Vietnam (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03
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Published in Economic Analysis and Policy, 2023, 77, pp.326-336. ⟨10.1016/j.eap.2022.11.021⟩

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Journal Article: Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03980577

DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.11.021

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